Why are we in a depression? Is this just a natural phenomenon of a free market economy? Do free markets inevitably go into depression therefore the politicians or the Federal Reserve [The Fed] should manage the economy?
Do you understand the importance to the answer to these questions and
how they effect you personally? Your liberty? Your ability to provide
for yourself and your family? No other external factor has as much
impact on your life as this.
The Fed has been holding interest
rates at or near zero for almost a decade now. Interest rates are a
price just like the price of a home or a car. It is the price of
borrowing money. Just like any price, it relays information. Just like
the price of a home signals how many and who will buy homes, the
interest rate signals investors as to what and how much investment the
economy can put into capital.
When people save money they are
exchanging purchases today in exchange for purchases in the future.
(They are saying- I won't buy something today, I will buy at some date
later). And this increases the money supply which in turn lowers the
interest rate.
That lower rate now signals to investors that
people are saving and now is the time to invest in capital (new
businesses, homes to build, etc.)
And because this signal
happened naturally, once the investors complete their project (new
business, building homes, etc...), there is purchasing power to support
those projects because people saved their money (so when the future
comes and people retrieve their savings to buy, they will support these
new businesses, buy homes, etc...)
But when the Fed drives
interest rates down to zero by printing tons of money, it sets a
mis-allocation of resources into play. The low interest rate signals the
investors to start new projects (new businesses, build homes, etc...)
but there was no actual savings to support these new projects in the
future. People did not actually save money and exchange purchases today
for purchases in the future.
So once the projects are near complete, they fail.
This is known as the boom/bust cycle. It is the inevitable result of
the Fed holding down interest rates through monetary expansion.
The answer to the above question is NO, the economy does not naturally
go into depression. The Interest rate insures a natural balance of
capital resources and consumers support of them.
The Fed is the root cause for the housing bubble. It is the root cause for this depression.
So what's their answer to this crisis? Print more money and hold down interest rates to spark investment.
They have done this now for so long that they are having difficulty even getting another bubble!
The real solution? Stop printing money, allow interest rates to return
to their natural level. If we do this, we will go through a deeper depression that will
cause deflation and allow market corrections to occur. After about 18
months of the government and the Fed of leaving the economy alone, the
economy will recover.
If you want to know if this will end. Just look at the interest rate. As long as they hold it down this low, we're in bigger trouble than ever!
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